Mark Chapman's Weblog

It probably seemed like a great idea. Sarah Palin is young and fresh, in contrast to the septuagenarian, increasingly wrinkly McCain. She is also an ultra right wing evangelical, which could nullify McCain's the fears felt by the far right elements of the Republican party about McCain's own, often more liberal views. However, possibly most important of all, she is a woman and McCain probably felt he could secure the votes of women who otherwise would have voted for Hillary Clinton and are angry that she failed to secure the nomination, with their anger often directed towards Barack Obama. In one swift move McCain could add youth and vitality by choosing a former beauty queen as his running mate; he could appease the religious right and cement his position as the head of the modern, ultra conservative Republican party; and he could gain the votes of women whose main interest in voting was in order to vote for a woman. But it looks like it's all going to go wrong.

Barack Obama is a relatively inexperienced politician. This is something that senior Republicans such as Karl Rove have been referring to for sometime, and it is clear that they see it as Obama's weakest point. However, Obama's inexperience pales in significance to Palin's. Indeed, whereas many have criticised Obama's lack of experience with foreign affairs, Palin has none and only got a passport last year. She went to Kuwait and Germany to visit US troops and did not engage in any relations with either the German or the Kuwaiti governments. In fact, despite being the governor of Alaska Palin has never been to Russia and has never engaged in any discussions with Russian politicians.

As someone so devout in her evangelical views, who is pro-life and so nationalistic Palin could be seen as the ideal person to placate the religious right, many of whom had refused to back McCain. However, the more moderate wing of the Republican party (many of whom support McCain) including social conservatives and economic conservatives, have become disillusioned with the move towards the religious ultra right. As such they are unlikely to back the appointment of Palin. Equally, with the revelation that Palin's teenage daughter is pregnant, McCain's running mate does not appear to be the perfect mother those on the religious right can look up to.

Finally, McCain has underestimated the women who were so keen to see Hillary Clinton as President. It is true that women voters were far more likely to be Clinton supporters, and it is true that many were bitterly disappointed and angry when Obama was selected after such a vicious campaign by both candidates. However, the majority of women in the US are Democrats or lean towards the Democrats and this is not going to suddenly change because McCain chooses a woman as his running mate. Also, as Palin's ultra right views, particularly those on abortion become widely known it is likely that women who would ordinarily vote Democrat but are angry at the Democrats' nomination of Obama, will once again vote on policies rather than gender.

Selecting Palin as his running mate was a surprising, possibly courageous decision but it is destined to fail. And this could also lead to his failure to get into the White House.